Projections for the 2020 elections in the wake of the midterms
Joshua Boulet, Staff Writer
Photo Courtesy of Pixabay
The 2018 U.S. midterms were tense. USA Today has a summary, but here’s the long and short of it. The Republican Party won the U.S. Senate, but the Democratic Party won the House of Representatives. There were also high numbers of women and LGBT+ representatives elected to seats in government.
The Democrats hoped for a blue wave, and there was one; however, this was not unexpected.
So, with the results of the midterms in mind, people have started to look towards the 2020 election. Nathaniel Rakich wrote about his predictions for 2020. He noted that it’d be a win for democrats if they won a single senate seat, but that it is more likely that the senate won’t budge or that the republican party will gain a seat. The current status of the senate leaves republicans at 51 and democrats at 49.
I spoke to David Tyner, a political science professor at NGU, about the topic. He stated that he “hated to hazard a guess” due to the many possibilities. He also noted that the Republicans did fairly well in Florida during the midterms. Traditionally, the Democrats do well in the urban areas while the rural areas tend to lean republican. Therefore, “the battle will be in the suburban areas in 2020.” He theorized that the party that can capture more of the suburban voters will be able to win the presidential election.
Another of Tyner’s points was that it will likely depend on the candidates running. The public assumed a Democrat would win in 2016, but Trump ended up being elected instead. It’s also important to note that campaign strategies will be a major factor. Trump got elected by acting aggressive on the campaign trail, so the upcoming candidates will have to consider what to do.
NPR’s Scott Detrow theorized on what the parties will have to do to succeed in the midterms. “[referring to democratic candidates] Do you run a campaign attacking Trump, or trying to appeal to the middle and win over wary conservatives?” Democratic and republican candidates will have to mix up their strategy to win out against Trump in the 2020 election.
Nevertheless, people are still convinced that Trump will get re-elected. 46 percent of people believe that he will be in office again in 2020. This may not be a majority, but they are similar to the odds people gave Obama for re-election during his first term.
